Are We Nearing Another Real Estate Bubble?

Demand for housing remains strong despite low inventory, rising prices, and the likelihood of rising interest rates. A continuous net migration into Tampa Bay increases the need for housing every month, while post-Covid lifestyles are driving home values up. Here are some factors that can determine whether we’re in a blip or in a bubble.

Interest Rates

The 30-year mortgage rate dipped below 3% again on July 1, 2021. Rates remain at historically low levels. Inflation pressure and general pressure for profitable rates will make 3% rates difficult to maintain.

Active Listings

Active listings continue to decline, hitting just under 3,800 listings in Tampa Bay. When compared to 5,332 homes sold in June, it is easy to understand why listings are getting offers so quickly.

Home Sales

Home sales hit a record again in June after dipping slightly in May. Continued migration to Florida coupled with more millennials hoping to purchase their first home keeps demand above supply.

Sales Price

Home prices have increased 12-17% over the past 12 months. In July, prices jumped 21% from the prior year, with the average home price in Tampa Bay above $300,000 for the last three months.

The Next Bubble?

Prices are beginning to approach 2006 levels when adjusted for the 3% long-term real estate price trend. While we have not seen irresponsible lending practices, prices are starting to reach a level to knock out the first-time homebuyer. This is particularly true when a significant amount of cash is required at closing to cover the gap between the sale price and the appraised price.

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