2021 Tampa Bay Real Estate Market Review

The Tampa Bay real estate market has been on fire for the past year. Three dominant trends impacted our local market in 2021:

1. Interest rates remained below long-term averages, making home payments more affordable.

2. Demand for homes in the Tampa Bay real estate market exceeded supply the entire year.  

3. Migration into Tampa Bay continued to increase as more people moved from the North. We also started to see the migration from the West (primarily from California.) This increased the number of homes (purchase and rental) required.

Low Interest Rates

Inflation remained comparatively stable during the first six months of 2021 with the Federal Reserve’s ongoing management. Toward the end of the year, increased deficits, shortage of workers, supply chain disruptions, and lack of raw materials contributed to a surge in inflation in the 4th quarter. The 30-year mortgage rate is showing an upward trend as we approach 2022.

Low mortgage rates create a growing demand, which in turn creates surging home values. In Tampa Bay, the average home sale in the third quarter of 2021 saw a 62.1% profit for the seller — the 33rd highest profit margin among U.S. metro areas. The typical area home sold for $114,900 more than it was purchased for in dollar terms.

Demand for Homes Outstripped Supply

New home construction hasn’t kept up with the increased need for housing from increased migration into the area. Builders have remained conservative, with many surviving the meltdown in 2008. They are not inclined to build in anticipation of continued strong demand. Plus, a record-high one in four Tampa Bay home purchases were made by an investor in the third quarter, the Tampa Bay Times reported.

Tampa had the second-highest home price increase for a metro market in September 2021, according to the Associated Press. With a 27.7% increase, Tampa was only behind Phoenix. The average Tampa Bay home was $316,379, with a home value increase of 28.7% from October 2020 to October 2021, according to Zillow. Homes were on the market for a median of six days in September and October.

Migration to Tampa Bay

In the third quarter of 2021, a RedFin analysis showed that people browsing for homes online in the Tampa Bay area are from Orlando, New York, Washington, D.C., Chicago, Boston, Los Angeles, and Miami. Additionally, in the last decade, the Tampa Bay metro region grew by more than 14%, according to the Census Bureau. In comparison, the Miami region grew by 10%. Hillsborough County had 1.45 million residents while Palm Beach County had 1.49 million.

It looks like migration to the Tampa Bay real estate market isn’t slowing down. The Urban Land Institute ranks the Tampa metro area as one of the top five emerging real estate markets in the country for 2022. The sizzling market here is the sixth-largest in the country and the top in Florida, per CommercialCafe.

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